Winston Churchill’s Famous “Private and Secret” June 1938 Warning About the Nazi Threat: By Ignoring the German Threat, the British People “are living in a ‘Fool’s Paradise”

This is the original of that famous and oft-quoted letter

Among the public men of influence, only Churchill recognized the profound peril to the world that the Nazis and Fascists represented. He spoke out in Parliament, on the radio, in his newspaper columns, anywhere and everywhere, demanding the government wake up and prepare. As early as 1933, Churchill warned in the House of Commons, “Those Germans are not looking for equal status. They are looking for weapons.” He soon gathered around him a band of like-minded supporters who saw the menace and the potentially fatal nature of the threat. But these men were a small minority, and none of them were in the upper reaches of government. The men who were, the prime ministers and party leaders, not only disagreed with Churchill but considered him a loose cannon and an annoyance. Neville Chamberlain showed the attitude when he later wrote, “The real danger to this country is Winston. He is the warmonger, not Hitler.”

In 1934, in scenes reminiscent of the best spy dramas, Churchill held clandestine meetings at Chartwell, where he was briefed on the actual situation in Germany by the government and military men in his network, men in positions low enough to be without policy-making influence but high enough to know the true facts and statistics being developed. With this information, Churchill shocked Parliament by revealing the true figures of German military production, figures many colleagues refused to believe. In November of 1934, he made a stirring speech in the Commons demanding an increase in military expenditures: “To urge preparation of defense is not to assert the imminence of war…” These words marked a turning point in his career; he would now primarily devote himself to warning of the threat of Germany. And he would continue to rely on key reports from insiders right up to the time he entered the Chamberlain ministry in September 1939.

The march of the dictators now began in earnest. In October 1935, Italy took Ethiopia. Then, on March 7, 1936, Hitler invaded the demilitarized Rhineland, which action conflicted with and basically tore up the Versailles Treaty that ended World War I. Churchill understood the meaning of this invasion, saying “An enormous triumph has been gained by the Nazi regime,” and stating “The German Army is a dagger pointed at the heart of France.” But many in Britain saw this as Hitler simply getting his own and the government did nothing.

In 1937 Chamberlain became Prime Minister, and he held firm to his policy of appeasing the dictators and denying the necessity of rearming. Saying Hitler was a reasonable person with whom he could negotiate, and refusing to allocate significant funds to build planes and ships, he overpowered or forced out of the cabinet everyone who opposed him. Then came the pivotal year of 1938, when Hitler began to implement his grander plans. In the early hours of March 12, German troops marched into Austria. Hitler himself crossed the border shortly after, welcomed by thunderous crowds, some of which were genuine while some others staged. Mussolini was informed by Hitler of the invasion in advance, and he personally telephoned Hitler to say that Austria was “immaterial” to Italy, suggesting Italy’s approval for this annexation. The enthusiastic Hitler told a messenger to bring Mussolini the message “I will never forget him for this!” Meanwhile, Britain and France registered protests but failed to act. In fact, on April 16, 1938, Chamberlain signed the Anglo-Italian Agreement, which acknowledged Italy’s seizure of Ethiopia in exchange for reduction of Italian troops in Spain.

Meanwhile, by then, Hitler was demanding territorial concessions from Czechoslovakia, and it was known that he and his generals were drawing up a plan for the occupation of that country. The Czechoslovaks were relying on military assistance from France, with which they had an alliance. But the French and British were in no mood for war with Germany, and instead chose appeasement. As historian Martin Gilbert writes, “Neville Chamberlain sought a closer accommodation with Germany, at the expense of Czechoslovakia’s territorial integrity”. On April 28–29, 1938, French President Édouard Daladier met with Chamberlain in London to discuss the situation. Chamberlain, unable to see how Hitler could be prevented from destroying Czechoslovakia altogether if such were his intention, argued that the Czechoslovaks should be urged to make territorial concessions to Germany. Both the French and British leadership believed that peace could be saved only by the transfer of the Sudeten German areas from Czechoslovakia.They did not see it as likely that Hitler would move to take all of Czechoslovakia.

By then, Churchill was questioning Britain’s readiness for war, at a time many people still took it for granted that Britain was already strong. On May 1, 1938, The News of the World, a newspaper to which Churchill had been contributing articles for decades, published Churchill’s major warning about Britain’s unreadiness. In that article Churchill wrote, flatly, “Our fleet and air force are inadequate.” But even the paper that published Churchill’s warning apparently was worried about its bleak tone frightening people, or simply didn’t believe him, and began to assure readers that all was well.

Major Percy Davies was editor of the News of the World, and Churchill soon wrote to admonish him, saying he was ‘astonished’ to read an article on these lines, and repeat his warnings. The letter is famous for its oft-quoted saying that those who chose not to see a looming threat were “living in a ‘fool’s paradise.’” This is the original of that very letter.

Typed letter signed, ‘private & secret’, on his Chartwell letterhead, Kent, June 5, 1938, to Davies. “As I know how earnestly you desire not to mislead the readers of the ‘News of the World’, I venture to write you a line upon the ‘enclosed article, which I read with much astonishment.

“There is at the present time an almost total absence of defence, apart from the R.A.F., for our cities and vulnerable points. We have not got a dozen modern anti-aircraft guns in the country. The 3.7 guns which are modern, are now trickling out in small numbers every month, but the total order is itself on a scale hopelessly below our requirements. The Germans have actually between 3,000 and 4,000 modern anti-aircraft guns, all made since 1933. While I would not say the War- time relined 3″ gun is of no value, it is not comparable with modern weapons. The balloon barrage is at present on a very small scale, and I doubt if it will affect the problem. As for the wonderful inventions of the scientists, I have served on the C.1.D. Committee, which deals with this subject, for nearly three years, and while there are many hopeful lines which are being explored and some developed, it is a delusion to think that for the next two or three years there will be any substantial contribution to our defence from this source.

“As to the R.A.F., it is at present less than one-third of the German Air Force, and the rate of production is at present less than one-third. Only about half the Squadrons are equipped with modern machines, and the German fast bombers are so fast that we have not a sufficient margin of speed to catch them, except under very lucky circumstances. In any case, we should be heavily outnumbered.

“The Germans know our position very accurately, and it is our own people who are living in a ‘Fool’s Paradise.’

“Excuse my writing this to you for your own private eye, and that of Sir Emsley Carr; but I take a great interest in all that the ‘News of the World’ says.”

Churchill was right on all these points, and in two year’s time German bombs would be falling all over Britain. Not until he was himself Prime Minister would there be adequate production, nor serious plans for defense and to protect “our cities and vulnerable points.”

In September, just three months later, came the Munich Agreement, a surrender to Hitler in no uncertain terms. On October 5, 1938, Churchill spoke in the House Of Commons in a speech presaged by this letter: “All is over. Silent, mournful, abandoned, broken, Czechoslovakia recedes into the darkness…We are in the presence of a disaster of the first magnitude which has befallen Great Britain and France. Do not let us blind ourselves to that…I do not grudge our loyal, brave people, who were ready to do their duty no matter what the cost…the natural, spontaneous outburst of joy and relief when they learned that the hard ordeal would no longer be required of them at the moment; but they should know the truth. They should know that there has been gross neglect and deficiency in our defenses; they should know that we have sustained a defeat without a war…And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigor, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”

This is likely the best letter from Churchill’s Wilderness Years that we have ever carried.